While most gubernatorial elections have little impact on national politics, Virginia’s governor’s race is proving to be an exception. In a state where President Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020 and Democrat Terry McAullife is well known (he served as governor from 2014 to 2018), Republican Glenn Youngkin continues to climb in the polls. Why is this happening? And perhaps most importantly, what does this mean for America?
First and foremost, the race has exposed a worrisome trend for the Democratic Party: Virginian Democrats have lost their enthusiasm for politics. In the 2020 election, Virginian — and national — voter turnout hit record highs, empowering Democrats to sweep the Presidency and both houses of Congress. Since the 2020 election, however, it seems that Virginian Democrats have become increasingly apathetic, deadening the voter enthusiasm that buoyed the Democrats to victory in 2020. If McAullife loses this election as a result, this race could spell political disaster for Democrats nationally in the upcoming midterm elections, when Democrats will face serious threats to their majorities in both the House and Senate.
But Virginia’s race is not only a bellwether of Democrats’ prospects; it is also a preview of the future of Republican politics. In the past few years, Trump has dominated the Republican Party. While this singular devotion to the former president has engendered remarkable voter enthusiasm, it has also made many Republican candidates vulnerable to accusations of radical Trumpism — of banning abortions, restricting voting, and paving the way for the return of Trump himself.
But Virginia’s race is different. Despite McAullife’s accusations of this radicalism, Youngkin has remained largely unscathed. By dodging questions about the former president, he has managed to avoid alienating moderate voters while still benefiting from Trump’s endorsement — a strategy that is clearly working in his favor. This is post-Trump Republican politics: winning back moderates while keeping as many Trump fans around as possible.
While the cunning of this political strategy is undeniable, many question its integrity. After all, it seems like Youngkin is playing both sides of the coin, simultaneously wooing moderates with Trump-free rhetoric and keeping Trump voters by not acknowledging the failings of the former president. Then again, this strategy is awfully similar to the brand of coalitional politics Democrats employed to win the 2020 election. After all, didn’t they court two political factions — moderates and progressives — too?
It’s honestly hard to say. Personally, I am inclined to believe that these are radically different situations — that embracing Trumpism presents much more of a threat to America than embracing progressive Democrats — and that if Republicans truly want to build a more sensible, less radical party, they must first be willing to exorcise Trump from their party.
For now though, all any of us can do is watch as this contest unfolds. So I urge everyone, fellow non-Virginians included, to pay attention: whatever its outcome, this race will tell us a lot about the future of the Democrats, the Republicans, and our nation.
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