On Sunday, Senator Joe Manchin announced in an interview with Fox News that he would vote “no” on the Build Back Better (BBB) Act — the Democrat’s omnibus bill that includes everything from climate action policies to universal preschool and expanded child tax credit. As a Democrat in the 50-50 split Senate, Senator Manchin holds a decisive vote, meaning that his opposition to BBB effectively kills the bill as we know it.
So why is Senator Manchin so opposed to the bill? And is there still a way to salvage it?
Senator Manchin and the Republican’s primary objection to the bill is its cost: $2 trillion. This is undeniably a lot of money, especially given how much the government has spent this year to counteract the pandemic.
And this headline cost isn’t even the full story. To minimize the bill’s cost (Democrats have already lowered the price from $3.5 trillion), the Democrats had to employ legislative loopholes called “sunset clauses.” These clauses give bills or provisions an expiration date, upon which Congress can vote on whether to renew the legislation.
In theory, sunset clauses allow lawmakers to test the waters with a bill — to see whether their legislation works well. In practice, however, they mask a bill’s true cost because sunset clauses are almost always renewed. After all, it is exceedingly difficult to recant government benefits like tax credits or healthcare when the public has been enjoying them for years. In the case of BBB, Democrats assigned arbitrary expiration dates to BBB to make the bill look cheaper, undoubtedly with the expectation that the provisions would be renewed later.
This all means that BBB would probably cost much more than its marketed price indicates: around $4.7 trillion in total, according to an estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a federal agency that informs Congress on fiscal matters. Moreover, since the bill doesn’t include plans to pay for this greater price tag, the impact on the national deficit would also be significant: $3 trillion, according to the CBO.
Indeed, there is no avoiding it: BBB is expensive and convoluted.
But that doesn’t mean we should abandon the bill altogether. The fact is that despite its currently excessive costs, BBB has a lot of programs that could do real good. Universal preschool could improve the education of our youngest children, a priority in our increasingly complex world; extending the child tax credit could further reduce child poverty, as it has already done for millions across the country; and climate action policies could help counter the disastrous effects of climate change, a crisis we can no longer ignore.
So how can we invest in these important programs, while introducing them in a bill that can pass?
Senator Manchin already has a solution: do less, better. Specifically, Congress needs to abstain from the budgetary gimmicks of sunset clauses, instead investing in fewer but longer-term provisions that can pass. This will of course mean some programs won’t happen — the child tax credit, for example, might have to be curtailed for Senator Manchin to sign on. This is unfortunate, especially for Democrats who were expecting all of these provisions to pass.
But in the end, Democrats have to face reality. Right now, none of these provisions will pass. Without any bill, Democrats will undoubtedly face huge losses in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, effectively ensuring that none of these programs will ever be instituted. Putting forth a revised and simplified bill is the better — and frankly the only — course of action if Democrats want change: it would be more straightforward for the public, and most importantly, it would guarantee that these programs remain permanent.
Importantly, Democrats must also remember that even though they have lost some programs, the ones they can still pass — universal preschool, climate action policies, expanded healthcare — are all milestone achievements in their own rights. If Democrats are willing to simplify their legislation, they will establish these remarkable programs and make good on BBB’s promise: to enact lasting and impactful change for America.
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