Background
It’s November 8th, 2016. The crowd of over ten thousand’s excitement eases the bite of the late-fall New York air. For months, they have been counting down the days until this moment. For months, they have sworn only one candidate has a chance. They are ready to elect America’s first female president. They sing, they dance, they celebrate. They won’t believe what comes next.
Nearly eight years later, supporters at the Republican National Convention managed to rival this confidence. Their nominee—having survived an assassination attempt just days earlier—led a post-debate President Biden comfortably in the polls. They roared as Hulk Hogan and Dana White took the stage, chanted after nearly every sentence Vice President pick J.D. Vance delivered, and cried as their hero—almost martyred in front of their eyes—attributed his being there to divine intervention. The MAGA dream was as alive as it had been in years.
Today, the former president’s lead has vanished. Since jumping ship for Vice President Harris, democrats have revived their presidential hopes. The left is rejuvenated, and betting odds have swung in the Democrats’ favor. The Democratic dark age of Biden’s decay is fading in the rearview mirror. Trump’s attempted assassination has had little lasting effect on his polling, and he has yet to fulfill his promise to “unite” the country. So, did Republicans celebrate too early? How did they squander what should have been a perfect storm of political momentum?
Potential Blunder #1: JD Vance
At the time, political newcomer JD Vance was a strategic pick for the Republicans. With former president Trump leading incumbent Biden by as many as six points, the election was all but decided. Vance, the youngest on Trump’s VP shortlist, appeared ready to accept the torch of the MAGA movement. With a fiery personality and unapologetically far-right views, though, Vance was more of a “mini-me” for Trump than a figure who could expand his appeal. Against Biden, this was a risk the former president was willing to take. Against a far stronger Harris-Walz ticket—especially considering Trump’s struggles in suburban communities and with black voters—the one-dimensional Republican ticket is far more weak.
Moreover, the recent influx of controversy surrounding Vance’s fluctuating views, odd public remarks, and connection to the Project 2025 agenda that his running mate has tried to separate himself from has only thinned his support. Today, Senator Vance’s approval ratings sit barely above 30%, around 10 points behind his Democratic Party counterpart Tim Walz.
Potential Blunder #2: RNC Speech
By the night’s end on July 13th, Donald Trump was sitting on a gold mine. He had survived an assassination attempt and, in the process, created one of the most captivating photos in American political history. Democrats and Republicans condemned the attack, agreeing that political division had gone too far. As I overheard one person in my (majority liberal) neighborhood say, “It doesn’t matter if he’s a convicted criminal and adjudicated rapist. That’s just not how we do things in America.” With his RNC address just days around the corner, Trump promised to write a new speech centered around unity and commonality.
In my opinion, America was ready for it. I had hope that he had changed, hope that America had reached a political point break. But he missed the mark. By the midpoint of his over 90-minute speech, any remnant beliefs of a “new Trump” had disappeared. Like a rock fell in Aristotle’s Greece, Trump’s solemn, grateful tone returned to its natural, accusatory self. It was the same Trump we have known for almost a decade. He claimed the left was entirely culpable for America’s political division. He wanted unity insofar as it was achieved through conformity rather than coexistence. By the morning after his address, the former president’s odds of winning the election had fallen over 6%.
Can You Blame Them?
Despite slowing momentum, Trump held a near 60-point lead in betting odds before the incumbent president dropped out of the race. The election was his to lose: his decision to tap the riskier JD Vance was indicative of the MAGA movement’s forward-thinking, and while he did not unite the country in the days following his assassination attempt, he certainly energized his existing base.
So, are the Trump campaign’s moves only errant in retrospect? After all, Trump’s decisions were logical considering the information in front of him. Joe Biden’s decision to drop out—despite appearing inevitable—left the Trump campaign in an unprecedented position. It's been over 60 years since an incumbent president deserted his re-election campaign, and President Biden did so just months before election day. There was no time to spare. Hence, within hours of her announcement, nearly every prominent Democrat had followed Biden in his endorsement of Vice President Harris. While Trump believed Harris would be the nominee long before it became official, it is unlikely he foresaw such a cohesive and successful transition. Rather than criticizing the Republicans, perhaps we should applaud the Democrats for pulling this off.
The Bigger Picture
Whether or not Vice President Harris carries her momentum into November, her taking over for Biden has made one thing clear: this race will be close. The winner may be decided by margins of just tens of thousands of votes across six swing states. With nearly 70% of Republicans still viewing Biden’s 2020 win as stolen, it is hard to imagine a peaceful response to a Harris victory. Even if Harris were to win handily, supposed procedural flaws such as noncitizen voting threaten the perceived legitimacy of our democracy. On the other side of the aisle, many Democrats worry that by not certifying local vote counts, Republicans will be able to alter election results on a macroscopic scale. As an American, I hope these concerns are addressed long before they can spark rebellion.
The two candidates’ first debate is scheduled for September 10th—just days after students arrive in Millville—and marks the beginning of what is sure to be a hectic election season at St. Paul’s and throughout the country.
Photo Courtesy of the Financial Times