Introduction:
The 2022 midterm elections are here. Political campaigns have been advertising for months, Partisan writers have analyzed both parties' odds, and voting closes today, November 8th. If you’re only vaguely familiar with the midterm elections, here is a breakdown of what they are and what implications they hold for the country.
Every two years, the United States holds elections for both local and federal government positions. At the local level, races for governorship and state legislature are often the most important. Governors are elected every four years, except in Vermont and New Hampshire, where they are elected every two. This year, 36 states will hold elections for state governors. State legislators are similarly in office for either two-year or four-year terms. Elections for state lawmakers will take place in 45 states this year. The winners of these elections will have a significant impact on local issues ranging from the implementation of federal funds to the legality of abortions in their state.
At the national level, Democrats and Republicans are vying for control of the two legislative bodies of the federal government: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Senators serve staggered six-year terms, so approximately one-third of the 100-member body run for reelection every two years. Members of the House, on the other hand, serve two-year terms. This means that 34 Senators and all 435 members of the House are up for reelection this year.
Midterm elections are specifically the elections held halfway between a president's four-year term. The party in power often loses seats in the midterms because voters are disappointed with the past two years of governance. This year, most analysts predict the Democrats will lose at least the House, many local elections and perhaps the Senate.
Now, let's look at four of the most highly contested and impactful races of the 2022 midterm elections taking place in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona—some of the key battleground states in this election, especially for the Senate.
Nevada
Left: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Right: Adam Laxalt (R)
Lidia Zur Muhlen '24 (D):
There are a handful of states that could tip the balance of power in Congress, and Nevada is one of them. Although Nevada has historically been Democrat, the Senate election in Nevada is proving to be one of the tightest races in the country. Republican candidate Adam Laxalt and Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are neck and neck, with the latest polling indicating Laxalt leading with 47.3 points to Cortez Masto’s 45.9 points. Both the Democrats and Republicans are pouring large amounts of money into the campaigns, making this political contest one of the most expensive in Nevada’s history.
More than anything, this race is about two central issues: inflation and abortion rights.
The effects of inflation are particularly prominent in Nevada. With the highest unemployment rate in the country and rising costs for gas and groceries, many working class individuals living in Nevada are struggling to adapt. Laxalt promises to slow inflation, which is one of the biggest concerns for Americans. The GOP blames Democrats and Biden for the high inflation rate, and many are choosing to vote Republican this November simply because they think the Republicans can remedy inflation.
The Democrats are trying to shift voters' focus from the economy to abortion rights. Cortez Masto is using Laxalt’s anti-abortion stance against him, reminding everyone that he called Roe v. Wade “a joke” and arguing that Laxalt does not have the best interest of women in Nevada. While Laxalt does not believe there should be a federal ban on abortion, he did say he would support a state referendum in Nevada limiting abortion to the first thirteen weeks. Either way, abortion rights might not be some voters’ main focus because Nevada has already codified abortion in its constitution. This is likely playing a part in Laxalt's lead.
In addition to these two issues, it is important to note that Laxalt backed former president, Donald Trump. He echoed Trump’s false claims of widespread election fraud when he served as the chairman of the Trump 2020 campaign in Nevada. Trump also endorsed Laxalt in 2021 when he announced he would be running for Senate. The Trump political brand continues to be effective, and because Laxalt has the support of Trump, he will most likely have the support of Trump’s followers as well.
Given the polls and the issues each candidate represents, the election could go either way. Although it is still unclear which way this race will go, the result will certainly have a major impact on which party holds power in DC. While both candidates represent significant ideological stances, it is also important to remember the other beliefs and backgrounds these candidates hold. In particular, let’s not overlook Laxalt’s history with the Trump campaign. Can we afford to have more Trump supporters in our government while we are still recovering from the repercussions of the big lie?
Georgia
Left: Herschel Walker (R). Right: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D)
Lucy Mason '23 (D):
Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker are neck and neck heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections. Many thought the race would be an easy victory for the Democrats. Walker is a staunch pro-life supporter, but recently two women came forward claiming he paid for their abortions. Despite his scandals, Walker currently has a one-point lead over Warnock. This race is vital for the Democrats. A Republican win would likely cost them the Senate majority. In 2020, Georgia was the deciding factor in the makeup of the Senate. It will likely be the determining contest again. With polls so close, it is unclear who will win, but I believe Walker will ultimately claim the seat. Even though abortion has been a major topic of conversation nationally, a recent poll in Georgia found that only 5% of voters define abortion as one of their top issues. Rising inflation and the economy are really what's on voters' minds as they head to cast their ballots. Throughout his campaign, Walker has had very consistent messaging about these two issues. It would not be surprising if this factor tips the race in his favor.
Turning to Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Stacy Abrams and Republican Gov. Brian Kemp are nowhere near as close as Warnock and Walker. Polls are reporting Kemp leading Abrams by eight points, meaning this race will likely side in his favor. Kemp, while not endorsed by Trump, is a very conservative candidate. His victory would bring with it a strict six-week abortion ban which he signed in 2019. This Republican wave in Georgia is a wake-up call to many who believed it was a solidly Democratic state following the 2020 election.
From the Georgia races to the country as a whole, I think the midterms will be an overwhelming Republican sweep. Historically speaking, this is expected, as it is common for Congress to flip control after the first two years of a new presidency. Still, it is shocking to see the direction the country has taken.
Pennsylvania
Left: John Fetterman (D). Right: Mehemet (Dr.) Oz (R)
Skylar Christofferson '24 (D):
This year, the governorship and one Senate seat in Pennsylvania are up for grabs. These two races have become some of the most anticipated in the 2022 midterm elections. The outcome of the gubernatorial contest will determine abortion access, government spending programs, and prison reform in Pennsylvania, while the Senate race will impact national politics, potentially swaying control of the Senate one way or another.
When Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey announced his retirement in 2020, an opportunity opened up for the Democrats to expand their majority in the Senate. Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are the two main candidates vying for Toomey’s seat. It’s a tight race, with Oz leading by a mere 0.5 points.
Fetterman markets himself as an “unconventional politician,” wearing hoodies to present himself as an everyman. Although this image was initially successful, Fetterman has recently been met with criticism around his liberal stance on crime, especially his opinions on decreasing sentencing lengths, and his auditory processing disorder, which was caused by a stroke he had in May.
Unlike Fetterman who is known for his local political career, Oz enjoys national recognition for his career as a TV personality on a health talk show. He garnered millions of fans nationwide with his show, and he has relied on this fanbase and the medical experience he displayed in the show to support his run for the Senate.
The race nationally for the Senate is tight. This election in Pennsylvania could tip the scales one way or another.
Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race is similarly competitive. According to a poll by FiveThirtyEight, Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro leads his Republican counterpart Doug Mastriano by a 10.4 point margin.
Mastriano runs a far-right campaign. He bussed Pennsylvanians to the January 6th riots and even attended the insurrection himself. Mastriano has also been spotted at an anti-Semitic rally and in a Confederate uniform. Despite winning 40% of the primary vote, he caters to the political extremes of the state, promoting Trump’s lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and saying that gay marriage should be illegal.
The Democratic candidate is Josh Shapiro, who currently serves as Pennsylvania's attorney general. He presents himself as a classic Democrat, supporting abortion rights and promising to improve affordable housing.
The contrast between Shapiro, a middle-of-the-road Democrat, and Mastriano, a fierce Trump supporter and election denier, leaves Pennsylvania voters with important decisions that will shape the future of Pennsylvania’s political atmosphere. This is particularly true because of the balance of power in the state legislature. Republicans hold Pennsylvania's state congress, but the governor's veto power has limited their ability to pass policy. Current Democratic Gov. Tom Wolfe vetoed over fifty bills over the course of his career as governor, setting a new national record for bills vetoed by a governor. The next governor will be a key adversary—or ally—for the GOP-controlled congress. Although Shapiro is leading in the polls, if he were to lose, Pennsylvania Republicans would hold both the governorship and the state congress, allowing them to pass an ambitious agenda. A Shapiro victory would carry on Gov. Wolfe’s legacy of reining in the Republican-held congress, while a Mastriano administration would pave the way for a series of conservative policy changes.
Arizona
Left: Mark Kelly (D). Right: Blake Masters (R)
Sophia Burdge '24 (D):
Arizona has emerged as one of the crucial battleground states in the nation. The Senate contest is between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, elected in 2020 to fill the seat of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, and Republican Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who won his primary after supporting former president Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election results. Currently, Kelly has a two-point lead on Masters. If he secures the seat, Democrats would be in a stronger position to maintain control of the Senate. With a majority, Democrats will continue to support a progressive legislative agenda and confirm Biden’s federal appointments. While it remains possible—or even likely that Republicans will sweep this year’s midterms—I, as well as many other Democrats, believe the Democrats could cling on to the Senate, representing a huge win for the party.
Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Republican and former TV news anchor Kari Lake is facing off against the current Arizona secretary of state, Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake’s top issues are securing the border with Mexico, election security, and restricting abortion access. On the other hand, Hobbs has pledged to support and expand protections for abortion access and has called for comprehensive immigration reform that would create a pathway to citizenship for young undocumented immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children. Lake is just shy of a three-point lead on Hobbs.
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